February 2025 Recap
A monthly recap of content you may have missed
My monthly recaps are basically a summary and a pitch for why folks should consider becoming paying subscribers to Short Ideas. You are always welcome to check out my annual year-end Report Cards where I highlight every new name and its performance that year and decide for yourself if this is something that makes sense for you.
If you are a professional investor working for a hedge fund/money manager/mutual fund, feel free to reach out to me and I will be happy to upgrade your account to a one-month trial.
Without further ado, here is the recap.
I started the month off taking a look and writing up a “quick take” on something called Cloudastructure (CSAI), then a $14.40 stock and currently trading down over 50%, under $7. At one point during the month, the day-traders and stock manipulators got ahold of the stock and pushed it from $5 to $40 inside of a few days, but it has since given back almost all of that wild ride. This is a prime example for why shorting should be left to the professionals.
I next commented on SunCar Technology Group (SDA - $4.79) and their filing to sell some secondary shares. I opined that was likely the end of the floor under the shares, and they have subsequently declined over 50%.
The Founding Members next received an update about their second exclusive idea, a $5B technology company. The shares were down over 20% in response to weak earnings and guidance, and have continued their decline since reporting.
Next I turned my eyes to SemTech Corp. (SMTC - $35.58) which found itself down over 30% on the news that they would not be unveiling a new hoped-for product and that it probably would not become meaningful for at least another year. Earnings are due later this week.
Shares of Fluence Energy (FLNC - $5.25) have been hitting new lows daily since first publishing on the idea in 2022, but the decline has sped over the last quarter with shares declining over 60% on the back of a fire at one of their installations combined with a pretty bad revenue miss and some disappointing guidance for FY2025.
Aspen Aerogels (ASPN - $7.20) are likewise down over 70% and hitting new lows less than a year after addressing problems surrounding their capital structure and how they were choosing to address their liquidity needs.
I put out the Inseego (INSG - $9.63) idea as something of an afterthought. I have followed this company around for years, and every once in a while folks get overly enthusiastic about a company with few real options for growth. Shares are down over 30% since first highlighting them.
Founding Member Idea #3 soon followed on a $13B technology name.
An update on UFP Technologies (UFPT - $214) following some disappointing revenues and especially their guidance. Shares are down over 20% since that announcement, and down over 40% in the last couple of quarters.
The disastrous quarter for Digimarc (DMRC - $15.44) was next, where I discovered that DMRC was cutting some guidance due to the Elon’s DOGE efforts. Quite the story. Shares are down over 60% since first pointing them out in January.
Finally, the month ended with another idea exclusive to Founding Members. This idea is a $4B name in the insurance industry.
Once again, please provide a few comments if you find this to be of any use. It’s simply meant to be a quick roundup of the last month’s happenings to keep every subscriber informed to one degree or another.
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